economy Archives - Morning Ag Clips https://www.morningagclips.com/tag/economy/ America's #1 Ag News Source Fri, 27 Dec 2024 22:35:47 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://www.morningagclips.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/cropped-MAc-Logo1-1-32x32.png economy Archives - Morning Ag Clips https://www.morningagclips.com/tag/economy/ 32 32 North Carolina Christmas Trees Weathered the Storm https://www.morningagclips.com/north-carolina-christmas-trees-weathered-the-storm/ Mon, 23 Dec 2024 21:43:13 +0000 https://www.morningagclips.com/?p=657482 RALEIGH, N.C. — The Christmas season is here. And like the Grinch in Dr. Seuss’ 1957 classic How the Grinch Stole Christmas, Hurricane Helene did her worst and threatened to upend the holidays across Western North Carolina this year. While there is a long way to go, local recovery efforts have been the stuff of […]

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RALEIGH, N.C. — The Christmas season is here. And like the Grinch in Dr. Seuss’ 1957 classic How the Grinch Stole Christmas, Hurricane Helene did her worst and threatened to upend the holidays across Western North Carolina this year.

While there is a long way to go, local recovery efforts have been the stuff of miracles, with people coming together to repair and restore homes and livelihoods, and in the case of our woodland farms, to save Christmas.

Christmas trees in North Carolina are a tremendous contributor to the economic sustainability of our western counties, where nearly all of the trees are grown. In fact, North Carolina is No. 2 in the nation in the farming of these festive holiday centerpieces. More than 3 million Christmas trees are harvested annually in the state, with many being shipped across the nation and internationally.

RELATED: Hope After Helene: Extension Promotes Resilience, Renewal for N.C. Apple Growers

“North Carolina Christmas tree farmers produce the most desirable trees on the market and this year is no exception. We will not know how the market for real trees fared until after Christmas, but I’m hearing that many choose-and-cut farmers sold all the trees they wanted to sell, especially the larger trees,” said Jamie Bookwalter, NC State Extension specialist in forestry and environmental resources.

In Avery County alone, Extension experts estimate $35 million in losses among the five highest producing farms, or between 175,000 and 200,000 trees. But it wasn’t the growers of mature trees that Helene hurt the most. Since the Fraser fir, the primary Christmas tree species in Western North Carolina, grows at a higher elevation, many fields are situated above the flood zones, where nursery and ornamental operations are located.

“Most of the damage we saw in Fraser fir farms was related to water damage, such as loss of infrastructure or landslides or the flooding of trees,” said Bookwalter. “Much like the general damage across the mountains, some farms were spared while other farms suffered a lot of damage.

“Although we’ve seen losses of mature trees in landslides, some of the highest level of damage was incurred by farmers that grow seedlings, which are often grown near streams because nurseries need good water sources,” she added.

Bookwalter reported an estimated 25% of Western North Carolina nurseries were impacted, with losses estimated at $125 million.

On top of the direct losses from Helene, farmers faced significant challenges to their ability to transport their trees to market with so many roads and bridges completely washed out.

Jerry Moody, director of the N.C. Cooperative Extension Avery County Center, found himself working closely with the state Department of Transportation in the weeks following Helene. Moody knew which fields the Avery County growers were harvesting and was able to triage the road repairs needed to move equipment and tractor trailers.

“We had until Nov. 5 to get the roads and bridges ready to bring the trees out on tractor trailers,” Moody said. Extension experts, like Moody, also worked on getting the necessary permission and materials for growers to fix their own roads when necessary. “We were able to get the roads taken care of and we were able to get their [trees] out.”

While 2024 will likely be seen as a successful season for most Christmas tree growers, the coming of spring will begin to show what long-term effects the storm will have on North Carolina Christmas trees.

“We are somewhat worried about disease with future harvests,” Moody said, before going on to describe a fungus-like pathogen that causes disease in Fraser firs. Phytophthora spores are spread through water and cause trees to rot at the root. The telltale sign of phytophthora is the needles of the tree beginning to turn red from the bottom up.

Moody explained that since this year’s crop of trees was dormant at the time of the hurricane, they were already beginning to retain their needles and were offered a kind of protection against the immediate effects of the wind and water. Over the next few years it will become evident if Helene carried the disease to new fields. “Only time will tell how far it is going to spread,” he said.

Researchers with NC State Extension are already studying the soil conditions to see what challenges growers may need to mitigate and what amendments may need to be made in order to ensure successful harvests in the future. “Right now the land is stable, there is a low risk of future slides, but the soil has been stripped to the bedrock in places so our ability to replant is in question in some areas,” Moody said.

RELATED: After the Storm: Soil Strike Team Helps Farmers Assess Land

“The assessment of soil conditions, especially soils and land around rivers and streams, is still ongoing,” said Bookwalter. “Many farmers lost many square yards and even acres of riverfront farmland. This will take months and even years to completely address,” she added.

Regardless of the challenges that lay ahead, both Moody and Bookwalter believe the industry will continue to thrive. “Christmas tree farmers are a resilient bunch, and North Carolinians can support rural areas staying rural by purchasing real Christmas trees,” Bookwalter said.

So this year, while you sit back to admire the lights and ornaments on your North Carolina-grown Christmas tree, spare a thought for the farmer that nurtured that tree for the last 10 years, raise a glass and wish them well.

Wind, rain and washed out roads couldn’t stop them from saving Christmas, or in the words of Dr. Seuss, “[S]He hadn’t stopped Christmas from coming, it came! Somehow or other… it came just the same.”

–Julie Hayworth-Perman, N.C. State University

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In the Cattle Markets: Dec. Cattle on Feed Report & Cautionary Note on “Demand Destruction” https://www.morningagclips.com/in-the-cattle-markets-dec-cattle-on-feed-report-cautionary-note-on-demand-destruction/ Mon, 23 Dec 2024 10:00:51 +0000 https://www.morningagclips.com/?p=657479 LAKEWOOD, Colo. — On Friday, December 20 USDA NASS released the latest Cattle on Feed report (https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/m326m174z?locale=en ). December 1st inventory was estimated at 11.98 million, on par with 2023. Placements in November were estimated at 1.80 million, down 4% from 2023 while marketings were estimated at 1.73 million, down 1% from 2023. Overall, this report […]

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LAKEWOOD, Colo. — On Friday, December 20 USDA NASS released the latest Cattle on Feed report (https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/m326m174z?locale=en ). December 1st inventory was estimated at 11.98 million, on par with 2023. Placements in November were estimated at 1.80 million, down 4% from 2023 while marketings were estimated at 1.73 million, down 1% from 2023. Overall, this report was in line with pre-report expectations and likely will not be a market-mover with interest transitioning to 2025 reports including the January Cattle Inventory report.

I expect the January Cattle Inventory report to show some additional liquidation has occurred leading to a smaller calf crop in 2025. It seems most likely that the summer of 2026 is the soonest substantial national heifer retention may begin. While there is recently elevated uncertainty around international trade that should not be overlooked, most anticipate domestic beef availability to decline perhaps by 2-3% per year (per person) in 2025 and 2026.

Given this setting and the opportunity for some extended armchair-pondering around the holidays, some context on economic concepts and an important historical reminder is prudent. Economists analyzing the beef industry use the term “demand” to refer to the willingness and ability to buy beef at a specific price. A change in beef demand is not triggered by changes in beef prices but rather by consumer income or wealth adjustments, changes in prices of other goods, or perceptions of beef quality evolving. To this later point, the clear improvement in overall beef quality (simple example is Prime or Upper Choice percentage versus past decades) has been core to beef demand growth (see K-State demand indices here: https://agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand/monthly-domestic-meat-demand-indices-usdabls-data/monthly-domestic-0 ).

As we turn to 2025 it is important to pause and connect the dots around things such as current feedlot supplies, future breeding herd size and corresponding beef availability, and what one may expect at the retail and food service level. Yes, lower beef supplies are expected and with that, most anticipate higher end-user beef prices. In fact, the industry should be hoping for that! Research with Melissa McKendree, Ted Schroeder, and Nathan Hendricks (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1093/ajae/aaz034 ) shows that feeder cattle sellers stand to gain the most when beef demand grows, and lose the most when demand falters.

If alternatively, lower beef availability is observed in conjunction with flat or lower beef prices, then beef demand clearly declined. In that unfortunate situation, economic viability for most in the industry also declines. While some younger market participants may dismiss this scenario, recall the 1980s & 90s was a period largely characterized by a shrinking herd, weakening beef demand, and overall decline in industry vitality. Indeed, lower beef volumes alone do not guarantee higher beef nor cattle prices. This experience is worth periodic reflection as the industry has made massive improvements that should not be overlooked or taken for granted. To the extent that beef prices increase reflecting stable or growing beef demand that indeed is a market outcome that should not only “be allowed” but encouraged. While the term “demand destruction” is likely to appear more in coming months, industry stakeholders are encouraged to take pause and in fact hope that higher prices develop reflecting stable or growing beef demand.

Finally, and most importantly I wish all readers a Merry Christmas, the ability to see the true reason for the season, and a joyous New Year.

cattle feed livestock

— Glynn T. Tonsor, Ph.D., Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University

Livestock Marketing Information Center

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Report Details More Economic Struggles for Tenn.’s Ag Sectors https://www.morningagclips.com/report-details-more-economic-struggles-for-tenn-s-ag-sectors/ Sun, 22 Dec 2024 21:14:46 +0000 https://www.morningagclips.com/?p=657345 KNOXVILLE, Tenn. – In 2024, Tennessee’s agricultural and forestry industrial complex was significantly impacted by six major factors: drought, agricultural land loss, trade deficits, decreasing foreign market demand, below average yields and relatively lower prices for major commodities. Researchers and Extension specialists from the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture Department of Agricultural and Resource […]

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KNOXVILLE, Tenn. – In 2024, Tennessee’s agricultural and forestry industrial complex was significantly impacted by six major factors: drought, agricultural land loss, trade deficits, decreasing foreign market demand, below average yields and relatively lower prices for major commodities. Researchers and Extension specialists from the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics also suggest that the outlook for 2025 could vary depending on the sector.

In the annual economic report to the governor of Tennessee prepared by the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the UT Haslam College of Business, the agricultural and resource economists provide an economic outlook for the state’s farmers and foresters. “The state’s agricultural and forestry industries directly and indirectly contributed $103 billion to the Tennessee economy,” says Andrew Muhammad, UTIA professor of agricultural economics. “2024 was a struggle for many of our producers and sectors. Next year could also be difficult, with trade policy uncertainty, low crop prices, drought- and hurricane-reduced feed supplies and high input costs.” Muhammad is a co-author of the report and holds the Blasingame Chair of Excellence in Agricultural Policy.

In terms of gross output, the agricultural and forestry industrial complex measured 11% of the economic activity conducted in Tennessee in 2024. An estimated 385,743 individuals worked in industries supported by the complex, which is 8.8% of the state’s total employment.

“Due to the dramatic declines in gross revenue in 2024, many crop producers will struggle with obtaining financing for the 2025 crop, which could affect production and result in consolidation in the row crop sector in Tennessee,” Muhammad and his co-authors write in the report. They add that negative factors affecting the livestock, poultry and dairy industries in 2025 will be continued high interest rates when financing operations and equipment as well as inflation and reduced discretionary spending available to consumers.

The report includes economic indicators for both agricultural and forestry production as well as related manufacturing and processing. The data are consolidated from a number of sources, including the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and Economic Research Service (ERS), the Farm Service Agency (FSA) and others.

Corn, cotton, soybeans and wheat are Tennessee’s top crops, and prices for each fell in 2024. Over the last five years prices for each of the commodities have fallen, with cotton prices having fallen the least over five years (10.8% on average), while corn, soybeans and wheat have all fallen by at least 20% during the period 2019-2024.

Tennessee also had below average yields in 2024, which when combined with price declines and changes in harvested acreage, will result in a dramatic decline in gross cash receipts. Based on current estimates of average prices, yields, and acreage harvested, gross cash receipts for Tennessee corn, cotton, soybeans and wheat will decline by $582.3 million compared to 2023, a drop from $2.2 billion to $1.6 billion. For the 2024-2025 marketing year, Tennessee farm-gate prices are projected to be similar: $4.00-$5.20 per bushel for corn; $0.67-$0.78 per pound for cotton; $10.00-$11.50 per bushel for soybeans; and $5.30-$6.50 per bushel for wheat.

The value of animals and animal products increased slightly in 2024, accounting for approximately 40% ($2.10 billion) of Tennessee’s agricultural receipts. At the beginning of 2024, Tennessee ranked sixteenth nationally in terms of the total cattle and calves inventory (1.60 million head including 835,000 beef cows and 25,000 dairy cows), which is the same ranking as a year ago. Tennessee ranked twelfth in total beef cow numbers. Kentucky and Florida are the only states east of the Mississippi River with larger beef cow inventories. Tennessee is ranked fourth nationally in meat goat numbers at 72,000 head. In addition to cattle, with cash receipts valued at $876.7 million in 2024, the state has a significant broiler production industry ($794.4 million). Hogs (2.6% of cash receipts), dairy products and milk (1.9%) and chicken eggs (1.7%) round out the top valuations.

A big question mark for the agricultural sector in 2025 will be U.S. trade policies. In FY 2024, Tennessee’s agricultural and related exports were $2.7 billion, down $313.7 million or 10.4% when compared to the previous fiscal year ($3.0 billion). While exports to China and Germany, two of our top agricultural trading partners, increased—primarily because of China’s interest in purchasing cotton— exports of intermediate products such as soybean meal and oil and other feeds fell by 10.5%, due in large part to a 60% decline in distilled spirits exports to the Netherlands. In better news, related-product exports, which are mostly forest products, were up $15.4 million to a total of $174.8 million (+9.7%).

The following faculty in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics contributed to the agricultural analyses included in the report: Andrew Muhammad, Andrew P. Griffith, Charley Martinez, R. Jamey Menard, Aaron Smith, Sreedhar Upendram and T. Edward Yu.

The University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture is comprised of the Herbert College of Agriculture, UT College of Veterinary Medicine, UT AgResearch, and UT Extension. Through its land-grant mission of teaching, research and outreach, the Institute touches lives and provides Real. Life. Solutions. to Tennesseans and beyond. utia.tennessee.edu.

–UTIA

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Collapse of Budget Deal Over Trump's Objections Leaves American Farmers in Limbo https://www.morningagclips.com/collapse-of-budget-deal-over-trumps-objections-leaves-american-farmers-in-limbo/ Thu, 19 Dec 2024 20:24:46 +0000 https://www.morningagclips.com/?p=657138 MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — American farmers are hoping that aid to agriculture will be revived as Congress struggles to pass a short-term spending bill that would keep the federal government funded and avert a looming partial government shutdown set to begin after midnight Friday night. A one-year extension of federal farm programs, around $30 billion in economic […]

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MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — American farmers are hoping that aid to agriculture will be revived as Congress struggles to pass a short-term spending bill that would keep the federal government funded and avert a looming partial government shutdown set to begin after midnight Friday night.

A one-year extension of federal farm programs, around $30 billion in economic relief and an agreement that would increase sales of a higher blend of ethanol, called E15, were part of a bipartisan deal that collapsed Wednesday after President-elect Donald Trump and his allies denounced the overall package. It was unclear Thursday whether a new deal could come together in time to prevent a shutdown — and whether any of those farm provisions would survive whole or in part, either as part of an extension or in separate legislation.

The proposed “continuing resolution” that congressional negotiators unveiled Tuesday night would have extended Farm Bill programs for another year after lawmakers were unable to agree on a new five-year package despite months of negotiations. It also included $10 billion to help farmers who’ve been struggling with high interest rates, declining crop prices and rising production costs that are outpacing farm revenues. Producers also would have gotten $20 billion of the $100 billion in disaster aid that was part of the failed package.

Even as he rejected the deal, Trump signaled that he was at least aware of concerns in farm country, which voted heavily for him in the election.

“Republicans want to support our farmers, pay for disaster relief, and set our country up for success in 2025. The only way to do that is with a temporary funding bill WITHOUT DEMOCRAT GIVEAWAYS combined with an increase in the debt ceiling. Anything else is a betrayal of our country,” Trump said in a joint statement Wednesday night with Vice President-elect JD Vance.

Farm groups say the aid they had hoped for wouldn’t have made producers whole, but it would have given them some badly needed stability as they apply for loans this winter to prepare for the spring planting.

According to fresh projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture this month, net farm income is expected to decline 4.1% for 2024 after falling 19.4% in 2023 from the record highs reached in 2022.

American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall urged Congress in a letter Wednesday night to preserve the farm provisions in a new agreement.

“Any alternative Continuing Resolution (CR) must include: a farm bill extension, aid to rebuild after natural disasters, economic assistance to bridge the gap until we can get to a new farm bill, and year-round E-15 sales,” Duval wrote. “Weather-related natural disasters in 2023 and 2024 have crippled communities across the country. The weather events may have passed, but unthinkable wreckage remains. Entire communities must be rebuilt.”

Carolyn Olson — who raises organic corn, soybean and wheat near Cottonwood in southwestern Minnesota — said relief would be helpful to farmers who’ve been affected by natural disasters, whether that’s drought in the Midwest or hurricanes in the Southeast.

Olson, who is vice president of the Minnesota Farm Bureau, said November through February can be a critical time because it’s when farmers make their big decisions for the next year.

“It’s really important for farmers to have some certainty and for their leaders knowing that it will be OK to lend to their farms,” she said. “That’s kind of the big unknown that we’re facing. Some farmers are very concerned about what their loan officers are going to say.”

That includes the Olsons. While their corn crop was good, and they also make money from finishing about 14,000 conventional hogs a year, they lost their entire 2024 wheat crop to disease. So that has added to the stress they’re facing, she said. And as organic farmers, they don’t have the cost of herbicides but still face high costs for other expenses, such as fuel to heat their barns.

“We need Congress to vote yes on this,” Olson said.

Corn growers had pushed hard for a provision in the failed proposal that would allow for permanent, year-round sales of gasoline with 15% ethanol, which is produced from corn. Standard unleaded gas can contain up to 10% ethanol.

While the first Trump administration backed year-round sales, opposition by the oil industry, and concerns that the fuel could worsen smog during warm weather, made summertime E15 sales dependent on annual waivers during the Biden administration. The Environmental Protection Agency in February approved year-round E15 only for eight Midwestern states starting next year. That uncertainty has dissuaded many gas stations from carrying the fuel. The industry hopes year-round sales nationwide will increase its availability and support demand for corn.

Jim Kanten, who grows about 2,300 acres of corn and operates a custom manure-application business with his father and brother near Milan in western Minnesota, said he hopes the E15 provision makes it to the president’s desk.

“It’s been a long process,” Kanten, who serves as president of the Minnesota Corn Growers Association, said. “We’ve been working on this for over 10 years.”

And while producers need a temporary Farm Bill extension, Kanten said they really need the stability of a fully updated five-year package.

But pork producers weren’t happy with the proposal that emerged Tuesday. They wanted Congress to block a California animal welfare law that took effect last year banning the in-state production and sale of fresh pork from hogs born to sows kept in tight confinement. Producers in other states must meet those standards if they want to sell pork in California. Farm groups say that’s raising costs for producers across the country and increasing prices for consumers nationwide.

“After years of losing money and forcing family farms out of business, we needed the certainty to make decisions yesterday,” said Lori Stevermer, a pork producer from Easton in southern Minnesota, who’s president of the National Pork Producers Council. “Congress’ complete disregard and inability to adequately provide assurance for producers is sure to make this a bleak holiday season for many farming families across the country.”

–By STEVE KARNOWSKI
Associated Press

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Ohio Treasurer to Offer Enhanced Ag-LINK Savings for Farmers Impacted by 2024 Drought https://www.morningagclips.com/ohio-treasurer-to-offer-enhanced-ag-link-savings-for-farmers-impacted-by-2024-drought/ Thu, 19 Dec 2024 02:21:20 +0000 https://www.morningagclips.com/?p=657055 COLUMBUS, Ohio — As farmers plan for the upcoming growing season, many are facing hardships and financial strain caused by this year’s drought. In an effort to lessen the burdens caused by these conditions, the Ohio Treasurer’s office will be offering an enhanced Ag-LINK application window for counties most affected by the drought. “This year’s […]

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COLUMBUS, Ohio — As farmers plan for the upcoming growing season, many are facing hardships and financial strain caused by this year’s drought. In an effort to lessen the burdens caused by these conditions, the Ohio Treasurer’s office will be offering an enhanced Ag-LINK application window for counties most affected by the drought.

“This year’s drought has impacted farmers in many Ohio counties and placed a strain on the agricultural community,” said Treasurer Sprague. “We’re proud to offer an enhanced Ag-LINK window as a way to help farmers, agribusinesses, and co-ops in the communities most impacted by the drought.”

Through Ag-LINK, farmers, agribusinesses, and co-ops can receive an interest rate reduction on new or existing operating loans. For nearly 40 years, the program has helped Ohio’s agriculture community to finance the upfront costs for feed, seed, fertilizer, fuel, equipment, and other expenses.

Starting in January 2025, the Treasurer’s office will offer an application window with enhanced Ag-LINK loan conditions for our agricultural partners in the counties most affected by the drought conditions.

During the enhanced savings window, qualified farmers will benefit from the following program conditions:

  • An increased loan cap of up to $750,000
  • An enhanced interest rate reduction
  • An extended loan period of up to two years

“The recent drought impacted the operations of many of Ohio’s farmers, so I applaud Treasurer Sprague’s efforts to provide extended accommodations and support through the Ag-LINK program,” said Dr. Cathann A. Kress, Vice President of Agricultural Administration and Dean of the College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences at The Ohio State University. “Ohio State University Extension and the college, in alignment with our land-grant mission, look forward to supporting the Treasurer’s efforts to reach farmers where they’re at as they prepare for next year’s growing season.”

The standard Ag-LINK program will remain available for farmers across Ohio in counties not designated as eligible for the enhanced window. Information regarding standard program loan caps and interest rate reductions for 2025 will be available in the coming weeks.

“The Ohio Cattlemen’s Association (OCA) appreciates the announcement by the Ohio Treasurer’s office of new Ag-LINK opportunities to better assist cattle families battling through this year’s historic drought,” said OCA President Mark Goecke of Allen County. “Cattle families in Southern and Eastern Ohio are continuing to struggle with managing their cow herds and preparing for winter hay shortages. These changes to the Ag-LINK program show an understanding of Ohio’s beef industry and will make the program more helpful to those cattle producers who have experienced the greatest losses.”

For more details on the Ag-LINK program and instructions on how to get started, visit www.tos.ohio.gov/ag-link/.

— Ohio Treasurer Robert Sprague

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In the Cattle Markets: Strong Calf Prices Finish the Year https://www.morningagclips.com/in-the-cattle-markets-strong-calf-prices-finish-the-year/ Wed, 18 Dec 2024 21:43:55 +0000 https://www.morningagclips.com/?p=656990 LAKEWOOD, Colo. — Cattle and beef markets are wrapping up the fourth quarter on a very strong note – especially for smaller animals. Calf prices for 5-6 weight animals in the southern plains have advanced better than $50/cwt in the last four weeks. And prices for 4-5 weight animals have moved further. The fall run […]

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LAKEWOOD, Colo. — Cattle and beef markets are wrapping up the fourth quarter on a very strong note – especially for smaller animals. Calf prices for 5-6 weight animals in the southern plains have advanced better than $50/cwt in the last four weeks. And prices for 4-5 weight animals have moved further. The fall run is apparently over.

Live fed cattle prices remain strong with cash trades better than $190 but prices for the year look range-bound to me between $180 and just better than $190. The boxed beef cutout value is holding better than $300 with a mix of performance at the primal level. Rib prices have been seasonally outstanding, and tenderloins have also been strong. Loins are showing some seasonal weakness as is ground beef. End meats are showing solid price levels but not much in terms of improvements. Once the market retreats from the strong rib purchases, and the Choice-Select spread seasonally softens, much will be determined by Chucks and Rounds. Also, this will be the period the market moves into the time of year when packer margins are the weakest. My point? The strong finish to the year in calf prices has little to do with what is going on downstream.

It is also not reacting to grain market news. Information from recent Crop Production and WASDE reports suggest some firming of feed grain prices. After a series of reports through the summer where production steadily increased, the November reports communicate some softening of yields, overall production, and a modest tightening of stocks-to-use. However, forage prices remain much below prior years and availability is substantially better.

Carcass weights remain truly impressive and have backed up very little from the four weeks at 960-pound average steer weights – heifers are following suit. It will be interesting, and important, to see the magnitude of any seasonal decline in weights. How much of the 40-pound increase based on the same week of the year prior persists? With lower corn prices and longer feeding periods then heavy weights will persist. But how heavy and what are the possible further increases?

These weight increases in all likelihood hang over the market as well as do the front-loaded cattle on feed inventories. The calculated cattle on feed over 150 days has been larger than any of the proceeding years – other than 2020 – but this inventory has been moving lower through the summer and fall. The exception is November’s number. The inventory of these long-fed animals has been large relative to what is seen in the 120 days on feed inventory. Inventories on feed over 120 days are this month tighter than 2023. Whereas the 150-day number is even compared with last year. Again, big numbers and weights now – and back through the summer and fall – but the prospect is for change come the first quarter. The pipeline is full for the near term with less so into next year. But then there are first-quarter packer margins to navigate.

The Markets

What does the technical picture say? Live cattle and feeder cattle futures have again posted strong rallies in September, October, and November. However, the market currently sits at resistance formed in the spring, and the spring strength was less than the excitement from this time last year. Approaching resistance is a sell signal. Cow-calf producers need to be getting ready and looking hard at LRP into next year. And I have talked to several that received payment this year. I see next year’s GFX contract looking a lot like this year’s. Strong sell-offs, strong up moves, and a lot of underlying volatility. And that is until herd building begins in earnest. As always, watch your charts. And add that Cattle on Feed report to the list. Placements through the spring will be an important signal.

— Stephen R. Koontz, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University

Livestock Marketing Information Center

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USDA to Measure Financial Well-Being of Indiana Farmers and Landowners https://www.morningagclips.com/usda-to-measure-financial-well-being-of-indiana-farmers-and-landowners/ Wed, 18 Dec 2024 09:37:01 +0000 https://www.morningagclips.com/?p=656874 EAST LANSING, Mich. — Beginning in January, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will spend several weeks gathering information about land ownership income, expense, debt, asset, demographic and other landlord characteristics to provide detailed information from all agricultural landowners across Indiana, as the agency conducts the Tenure, Ownership, and Transition of […]

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EAST LANSING, Mich. — Beginning in January, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will spend several weeks gathering information about land ownership income, expense, debt, asset, demographic and other landlord characteristics to provide detailed information from all agricultural landowners across Indiana, as the agency conducts the Tenure, Ownership, and Transition of Agricultural Land (TOTAL) survey. 

TOTAL is a joint effort between NASS and USDA’s Economic Research Service. The information farmers and ranchers provide through the survey influences national and state policy-making decisions. In addition, TOTAL data are used to calculate the farm sector portion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 

“TOTAL will measure the state of farmland ownership,” said Nathanial Warenski, State Statistician of the USDA NASS, representing Indiana. “The results of this survey help shape federal, state and local farm policies, and will help farmers and landowners to plan out Indiana farmland rental agreements.” 

In an effort to obtain the most accurate data, NASS will reach out to more than 40,000 producers nationwide, including over 1500 in Indiana, between January and April. The survey asks producers to provide in-depth information about their operating revenues, production costs, and household characteristics. The 2024 TOTAL survey in Indiana focuses on landowner farm costs and returns. The survey also includes questions on conservation practices, farm and household finances, and off-farm employment. 

In January, interviewers will begin reaching out to those farmers who have not yet responded by mail or on-line. We appreciate their time and are here to help them with the questionnaire so that their information will continue supporting sound agricultural decision-making. 

In addition to producing accurate information, NASS has strong safeguards in place to protect the confidentiality of all farmers who respond to its surveys. The agency will only publish data in an aggregate form, ensuring the confidentiality of all responses and that no individual respondent or operation can be identified. 

The expense data gathered in TOTAL will be published in the annual Farm Production Expenditures report on July 25, 2025. That report and others are available at nass.usda.gov/Publications. More reports based on TOTAL data and more information about TOTAL are available at ers.usda.gov/arms.

— USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

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Farm Credit Presents 2025 Grain and Oilseed Outlook Webinar https://www.morningagclips.com/farm-credit-presents-2025-grain-and-oilseed-outlook-webinar/ Tue, 17 Dec 2024 23:07:01 +0000 https://www.morningagclips.com/?p=656844 ENFIELD, Conn. — The grain and oilseed sector had record harvests in 2024. With changing storage opportunities, market demands and trade challenges, what is on the horizon for 2025? Farm Credit East and Horizon Farm Credit will be hosting CoBank Lead Economists, Tanner Ehmke and Jacqui Fatka, on Monday, January 6, at 12 p.m. for a free webinar […]

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ENFIELD, Conn. — The grain and oilseed sector had record harvests in 2024. With changing storage opportunities, market demands and trade challenges, what is on the horizon for 2025? Farm Credit East and Horizon Farm Credit will be hosting CoBank Lead Economists, Tanner Ehmke and Jacqui Fatka, on Monday, January 6, at 12 p.m. for a free webinar that will review variables affecting the upcoming cropping season.

With record soybean and corn harvests, profitable storage options and recovering export demand, the landscape is shifting. Learn how ethanol production and renewable diesel demand are driving the market, despite challenges from trade policies and global competition.

This webinar is part of Farm Credit East’s Insights and Perspectives series, which includes webinars and outlook papers for the diverse sectors of Northeast agriculture and forest products. Visit FarmCreditEast.com/CashGrain to read the 2025 grain and oilseed outlook report.

This outlook webinar taking place on January 6 is free to attend. You do not need to be a Farm Credit East or Horizon Farm Credit customer to attend. Learn more at FarmCreditEast.com/Webinars. Contact Chris Laughton at (800) 562-2235 or Chris.Laughton@farmcrediteast.com for more information.


Farm Credit East is a member-owned cooperative serving businesses involved in agriculture, forest products and commercial fishing throughout its eight-state territory of New York, New Jersey and New England. In addition to loans and leases, the organization offers a full range of specialized financial services. Farm Credit East is governed by a 16-person board of directors, comprised of 13 customer-elected, one customer appointed and two outside appointed directors. For more information, visit FarmCreditEast.com.  

Horizon Farm Credit is a member-owned agricultural lending cooperative, providing short-, intermediate- and long-term financing and related services to full- and part-time farmers, agricultural-related businesses and rural landowners. It serves Delaware, Pennsylvania, and parts of Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. The Association has more than 22,600 members and over $7.0 billion in loans outstanding. Learn more at horizonfc.com.

–Farm Credit East

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More Ag Groups Call on Congress for Farm Economic Assistance https://www.morningagclips.com/more-ag-groups-call-on-congress-for-farm-economic-assistance/ Tue, 17 Dec 2024 06:55:59 +0000 https://www.morningagclips.com/?p=656663 WASHINGTON — As the 2024 time clock quickly dissolves, negotiations to include economic assistance for agriculture producers in Congress’ year-end spending package also appear to be on meltdown. Without the immediate relief sought in that package, farmers across the country who have faced severe economic hardships this year are the ones who would be burned […]

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WASHINGTON — As the 2024 time clock quickly dissolves, negotiations to include economic assistance for agriculture producers in Congress’ year-end spending package also appear to be on meltdown. Without the immediate relief sought in that package, farmers across the country who have faced severe economic hardships this year are the ones who would be burned the worst amid unrelenting inflation, historically high input prices, and falling commodity prices.

Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association and soy farmer from Kentucky, said, “We urge congressional leadership to return to the negotiating table and find a path forward. A package that does not include both economic and disaster assistance for our farmers who have suffered significantly from unforgiving market conditions, disastrous weather phenomena and for many, a combination of both, simply does not meet the mark for what agriculture and specifically, our soy growers, need. We will oppose any supplemental spending package that does not provide meaningful assistance to farmers who need help now to stay afloat in 2025 and beyond.”

While talks continue on an extension of the farm bill and a package to fund the government, soy farmers and other agricultural groups have expressed they do not support a package that fails to acknowledge the economic realities farmers are facing.

Soybean prices have dropped 40% over the past two years. Compounded by an already insufficient farm safety net, this has made it increasingly difficult for farming operations to remain viable. Without consideration for U.S. farmers, who provide feed, fuel, food and fiber for our country, rural communities and consumers nationwide will likely feel the residual effects of a mounting agriculture recession.

This plea from the American Soybean Association echoed a similar earlier one from the American Farm Bureau Federation and a number of other agricultural groups.

National Farmers Union (NFU) President Rob Larew issued the following statement today, expressing frustration and urging Congress to address the urgent needs of family farmers and ranchers before adjourning for the year:

“Family farmers and ranchers across the country are battling relentless challenges. Despite these mounting pressures, Congress has failed to act and appears ready to leave town without securing critical support for farmers. NFU has been fighting tirelessly to ensure Congress passes a farm bill extension with economic and disaster aid family farmers and ranchers need.

“Time is running out to secure a deal before the end of the year. Lawmakers must not walk away from their responsibility to rural America. Congress has already failed to finalize a five-year farm bill. I urge Farmers Union members to tell their elected representatives to not come home until they have delivered immediate support for family farmers and ranchers.”

National Council of Farmer Cooperatives (NCFC) President Chuck Conner said in a statement:

“Reports from the supplemental funding/continuing resolution packaged being negotiated today indicate that it fails to include critical economic assistance for American farmers facing the one-two punch of low prices and skyrocketing input costs. It would fall far short of what is needed to ensure the survival of thousands of producers across the country. We urge congressional leaders to rethink this approach, negotiate in good faith, and keep their promises to farmers. Without such action, NCFC can not support such a bill and would urge a ‘no’ vote on the measure.”

Kenneth Hartman Jr, president of the National Corn Growers Association, released the following statement:

“We are deeply disappointed that congressional leadership appears to be at an impasse over crucial economic assistance for farmers in an end-of-the-year legislative package. Corn growers are faced with low prices and high input costs and economic aid would provide them with critical relief during challenging economic times.

“While these developments are disheartening, we call on Congress to resume negotiations and pass legislation that includes economic assistance while there is still time.”

National Association of State Departments of Agriculture CEO Ted McKinney issued the following statement:

“Farmers and ranchers are encountering tremendous pressures under high input costs, elevated interest costs, deeply depressed commodity futures markets and poor local cash markets. Additionally, they have experienced powerful headwinds, ranging from extreme weather to uncertain global demand to supply chain disruptions. NASDA calls on Congress to put politics aside and find a resolution that provides the necessary economic aid and disaster assistance for the farmers and ranchers who work every day to provide food security to our country while also feeding the world.”

Tim Fink, American Farmland Trust Vice President of Policy said:

“The holidays are a special time when many of us gather with loved ones over meals. But before we turn to the holidays, we will not turn our backs on the very people who make those meals possible.

The suffering of many of our nation’s farmers and ranchers is all too real. Net farm income has declined by nearly a quarter since 2022. In addition to weak prices and increasing production costs, farmers and ranchers nationwide have faced weather-related disasters. This year alone, producers experienced destructive hurricanes in Texas and the southeast; devastating floods in the northeast; and catastrophic wildfires in the west. In the face of such headwinds, it comes as no surprise that the 2022 Census of Agriculture showed a loss of over 141,000 farms.

Right now, Congress has a chance to address these challenges as part of an end-of-year package by transferring remaining Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) conservation funding into the Farm Bill, and by providing producer economic assistance. The transfer of the IRA conservation funding will ensure increased long-term support for producers in implementing the very practices needed to improve their profitability and make their operations more resilient to extreme weather. The economic assistance will support farm income at a time of downturn and uncertainty, helping keep producers in business and food on our plates.

American Farmland Trust stands with our nation’s farmers and ranchers in opposing any end-of-year package that does not include both the transfer of the IRA conservation funding and economic assistance. We urge Members of Congress to do the same.”

And finally, a release from the United States Peanut Federation (USPF) expressed disappointment after the recent breakdown of congressional discussions on the inclusion of economic assistance for farmers in upcoming appropriations legislation. The USPF release continued:

Over the past few months, USPF members have participated in three separate fly-ins to Washington, D.C., urging legislators to provide financial relief after the multi-year impact of increases in costs of production paired with low prices on the agriculture industry. The current extreme economic conditions and low probability, in many cases, of accessing loan services for the next crop year, create a financially devastating situation for farmers going into crop year 2025, with many predicting the closure of their farms. Additionally, many southern growers were impacted by back-to-back hurricanes this year, only worsening their situation and increasing the need for economic assistance.

Congress returned to session on November 12, and USPF members were hopeful agricultural economic assistance would be included in the final appropriations legislation during the Lame Duck session. Unfortunately, recent Capitol Hill discussions have lessened their confidence for economic assistance to be included along with the expected one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill.

Congress has until December 20, 2024 to complete the Fiscal Year 2025 appropriations process, including the Farm Bill extension, and USPF members strongly oppose any supplemental appropriations legislation that does not include vital economic assistance for the agriculture industry.

Joe Boddiford, chairman of the Georgia Peanut Commission, said, “The current economic crisis has devastated the peanut industry, and Congress must provide economic assistance to support those who feed our nation. Most don’t realize the severity of this situation, and many farmers will be forced out of business if Congress does not act now. It is imperative Congress deny appropriations funding if assistance is not provided to the row crop industry.”

Carl Sanders, president of the Alabama Peanut Producers Association, said, “Many peanut growers are unsure how their families will continue farming in 2025 with the current financial struggles they’re experiencing. Financial assistance from Congress is needed to bridge the gap until a new Farm Bill is in place.”

American Soybean Association
National Farmers Union
National Council of Farmer Cooperatives
National Corn Growers Association
National Association of State Departments of Agriculture
American Farmland Trust
United States Peanut Federation

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USDA Releases the 2023 Census of Aquaculture Results https://www.morningagclips.com/usda-releases-the-2023-census-of-aquaculture-results/ Tue, 17 Dec 2024 04:41:49 +0000 https://www.morningagclips.com/?p=656647 WASHINGTON — Total sales of aquaculture products in 2023 were $1.9 billion, an increase of 26% from 2018, according to the 2023 Census of Aquaculture released today by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. In 2023, there were 3,453 aquaculture farms with sales in the United States, up 18% from 2018. Five states – Mississippi, Washington, Louisiana, […]

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WASHINGTON — Total sales of aquaculture products in 2023 were $1.9 billion, an increase of 26% from 2018, according to the 2023 Census of Aquaculture released today by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. In 2023, there were 3,453 aquaculture farms with sales in the United States, up 18% from 2018. Five states – Mississippi, Washington, Louisiana, Florida and Alabama – accounted for 55% of aquaculture sales and 49% of aquaculture farms in 2023. Food fish and mollusks were the largest product categories for sales, with catfish and oysters the top species.

“The 2023 Census of Aquaculture, conducted every 5 years, expands on the data collected during the 2022 Census of Agriculture providing up to date detailed information about the production and marketing practices in the aquaculture industry,” said NASS Administrator Joseph L. Parsons. “These valuable data tell the story of U.S. aquaculture. The information in this report helps trade associations, governments, agribusinesses, and others learn about aquaculture and make informed decisions that have a direct impact on the future of the industry.”

The 2023 Census of Aquaculture provides detailed information about production and methods, surface water acres and sources, sales, point of first sale outlets, and aquaculture distributed for restoration, conservation, enhancement, or recreational purposes. Data highlights include:

  • The average sales per farm was $552,569.
  • Sales of food fish was $819.6 million, an increase of 14% from 2018.
  • The sales of mollusks was $575.5 million, an increase of 30% from 2018.
  • Crustacean sales in 2023 was $175.7 million, up 75% from 2018.
  • Catfish sales, valued at $480.0 million, accounted for 59% of all food fish sales in 2023.
  • Oyster sales, valued at $327.0 million, accounted for 57% of mollusk sales in 2023.
  • Mississippi led the nation in total aquaculture sales in 2023 with $277.0 million.

An aquaculture farm is defined as any place from which $1,000 or more of aquaculture products were produced and sold or distributed for restoration, conservation, enhancement, or recreation during the census year. Aquaculture is defined as the farming of aquatic organisms, including baitfish, crustaceans, food fish, mollusks, ornamental fish, sport or game fish, and other aquaculture products. Farming involves some form of intervention in the rearing process, such as seeding, stocking, feeding, protection from predators, etc. Fish, crustaceans, mollusks, and other aquatic products caught or harvested by the public from non-controlled waters or beds are considered wild caught and are not included as aquaculture.

The Census of Aquaculture is a Census of Agriculture special study, or follow-on, that expands on the data collected for 2022. The last Census of Aquaculture was conducted in 2018. To access the 2023 Census of Aquaculture results and other agriculture census data, visit www.nass.usda.gov/AgCensus.

— USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

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