I hope all of you will be able to look back on the year’s greatness. Put your pencil to paper as you consider all you learned from 2024; some very important lessons were sprinkled in there.

To give time for reflection and enjoyment this holiday season, we will not be sending out our daily emails the week between Christmas and New Year’s. The Morning Ag Clips’ daily email will resume on Thursday, January 2, 2025.

There will still be news articles published on our site, so make sure to stay up-to-date by going to morningagclips.com. Every day there will be something new, and there will be an editor watching for breaking ag news every day. But like you, we all need a break, and the only way to get it is to be extremely intentional about it, so we are!

Here’s to you, your family, and a prosperous and healthy New Year! We will see you in 2025!

With love,
Kate

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“We are thrilled to add Wolf River State Forest to our state forest system and are grateful for the support and partnerships that made this acquisition possible,” State Forester Heather Slayton said. “This property holds great historical, cultural, and archeological significance, as well as long-term forest research plots, and exceptional hardwood forestland. Under our management, we will keep this forest as a forest, conserve and steward its extensive natural and cultural resources, facilitate the continuation of research and conservation education at the site, and support the local wood products industry.”

TDF is currently surveying the property, installing signage, and preparing to welcome the public to the new state forest early next year with a ribbon cutting ceremony.

The land, which is located along the Wolf River, is a portion of the historical Ames Plantation, a property located about 60 miles east of Memphis. It was established by Hobart Ames, a wealthy industrialist, in the early 1900s. After he passed, his wife created the Hobart Ames Foundation to benefit the University of Tennessee’s (UT) scientific research programs and the National Championship for Bird Dogs.

The portion of Ames Plantation that will become Wolf River State Forest includes one of the finest examples of bottomland hardwood forests in the state, including white oak stands that provide significant aid to white oak restoration and sustainability efforts. TDF will also conserve more than 30 miles of streams and riparian habitat and 1,560 acres of wetlands in the new state forest, helping to ensure water quality for Memphis drinking water, fisheries, and others downstream.

In addition to the natural resources on the forest, the tract contains 45 state-registered historical sites. Rhodes College and the Hobart Ames Foundation have invested in expanding historical knowledge of slavery at Ames, identifying more than 800 enslaved people who lived and worked on the property and documenting their cemeteries and remnants of dwellings. Rhodes College, UT, and the Hobart Ames Foundation will continue to collaborate with those descendants to identify enslaved ancestors.

Finally, the new state forest will provide new public access for passive outdoor recreation activities in the area like hunting, wildlife viewing, hiking, and fishing.

TDF advanced this project in partnership with The Conservation Fund, a nonprofit organization that works to protect natural land, cultural sites, recreation areas, and working forests and farms across the United States. The Conservation Fund has partnered with TDF and numerous other state agencies over the years to protect more than 300,000 acres of Tennessee’s land and water.

“We are pleased we were able to facilitate the acquisition of the Ames property and work with the state to permanently protect it,” The Conservation Fund’s Tennessee State Director Zachary Lesch-Huie said. “The property has tremendous environmental, economic, scientific, and cultural value. Protecting it as a state forest will ensure it keeps delivering that value for the people of West Tennessee.”

Funding for the purchase was made possible with grant funds from the USDA Forest Service Forest Legacy Program (FLP), supported by Tennessee’s federal Congressional delegation. Matching funds were provided from TWRA’s Wetlands Funds, the Tennessee Heritage Conservation Trust Fund, The Conservation Fund, and the seller. FLP is a working forest conservation program administered by the USDA Forest Service in partnership with TDF to protect privately-owned forest lands from conversion to non-forest uses through conservation easements or land purchases. With the acquisition of the Wolf River State Forest, the area conserved under the Tennessee FLP is close to 60,000 acres.

Many individuals and groups worked together to make this enterprise possible including:

The Hobart Ames Foundation

The Conservation Fund

U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty

U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn

U.S. Rep. David Kustoff

Tennessee Heritage Conservation Trust Fund

Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency

Tennessee Department of Environment & Conservation

The Tennessee Forestry Association

The University of Tennessee

State Sen. Page B. Walley, District 26

State Sen. Becky Massey, District 6

State Rep. Ron M. Gant, District 94

State Rep. Johnny W. Shaw, District 80

State Rep. Greg Vital, District 29

State Rep. Chris Todd, District 73

Mayor Paul A. Young, City of Memphis

Mayor Rhea Taylor, Fayette County, Tenn.

Mayor Todd Pulse, Hardeman County, Tenn.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy

The Nature Conservancy, Tennessee Chapter

Tennessee Farm Bureau Federation

Tennessee Wildlife Federation

Pheasants Forever & Quail Forever

Wolf River Conservancy

Packaging Corporation of America

Wade Norris Logging, LLC

For more on how the Forest Service works with states to conserve forests through the Forest Legacy Program, visit www.fs.usda.gov/managing-land/private-land/forest-legacy.

Learn more about Tennessee State Forests on TDA’s website at www.tn.gov/agriculture/forests/state-forests.html and TDF’s role at www.tn.gov/agriculture/forests.html.

–Megan Carpenter, Tennessee Department of Agriculture Division of Forestry

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I expect the January Cattle Inventory report to show some additional liquidation has occurred leading to a smaller calf crop in 2025. It seems most likely that the summer of 2026 is the soonest substantial national heifer retention may begin. While there is recently elevated uncertainty around international trade that should not be overlooked, most anticipate domestic beef availability to decline perhaps by 2-3% per year (per person) in 2025 and 2026.

Given this setting and the opportunity for some extended armchair-pondering around the holidays, some context on economic concepts and an important historical reminder is prudent. Economists analyzing the beef industry use the term “demand” to refer to the willingness and ability to buy beef at a specific price. A change in beef demand is not triggered by changes in beef prices but rather by consumer income or wealth adjustments, changes in prices of other goods, or perceptions of beef quality evolving. To this later point, the clear improvement in overall beef quality (simple example is Prime or Upper Choice percentage versus past decades) has been core to beef demand growth (see K-State demand indices here: https://agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand/monthly-domestic-meat-demand-indices-usdabls-data/monthly-domestic-0 ).

As we turn to 2025 it is important to pause and connect the dots around things such as current feedlot supplies, future breeding herd size and corresponding beef availability, and what one may expect at the retail and food service level. Yes, lower beef supplies are expected and with that, most anticipate higher end-user beef prices. In fact, the industry should be hoping for that! Research with Melissa McKendree, Ted Schroeder, and Nathan Hendricks (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1093/ajae/aaz034 ) shows that feeder cattle sellers stand to gain the most when beef demand grows, and lose the most when demand falters.

If alternatively, lower beef availability is observed in conjunction with flat or lower beef prices, then beef demand clearly declined. In that unfortunate situation, economic viability for most in the industry also declines. While some younger market participants may dismiss this scenario, recall the 1980s & 90s was a period largely characterized by a shrinking herd, weakening beef demand, and overall decline in industry vitality. Indeed, lower beef volumes alone do not guarantee higher beef nor cattle prices. This experience is worth periodic reflection as the industry has made massive improvements that should not be overlooked or taken for granted. To the extent that beef prices increase reflecting stable or growing beef demand that indeed is a market outcome that should not only “be allowed” but encouraged. While the term “demand destruction” is likely to appear more in coming months, industry stakeholders are encouraged to take pause and in fact hope that higher prices develop reflecting stable or growing beef demand.

Finally, and most importantly I wish all readers a Merry Christmas, the ability to see the true reason for the season, and a joyous New Year.

— Glynn T. Tonsor, Ph.D., Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University

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In the annual economic report to the governor of Tennessee prepared by the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the UT Haslam College of Business, the agricultural and resource economists provide an economic outlook for the state’s farmers and foresters. “The state’s agricultural and forestry industries directly and indirectly contributed $103 billion to the Tennessee economy,” says Andrew Muhammad, UTIA professor of agricultural economics. “2024 was a struggle for many of our producers and sectors. Next year could also be difficult, with trade policy uncertainty, low crop prices, drought- and hurricane-reduced feed supplies and high input costs.” Muhammad is a co-author of the report and holds the Blasingame Chair of Excellence in Agricultural Policy.

In terms of gross output, the agricultural and forestry industrial complex measured 11% of the economic activity conducted in Tennessee in 2024. An estimated 385,743 individuals worked in industries supported by the complex, which is 8.8% of the state’s total employment.

“Due to the dramatic declines in gross revenue in 2024, many crop producers will struggle with obtaining financing for the 2025 crop, which could affect production and result in consolidation in the row crop sector in Tennessee,” Muhammad and his co-authors write in the report. They add that negative factors affecting the livestock, poultry and dairy industries in 2025 will be continued high interest rates when financing operations and equipment as well as inflation and reduced discretionary spending available to consumers.

The report includes economic indicators for both agricultural and forestry production as well as related manufacturing and processing. The data are consolidated from a number of sources, including the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and Economic Research Service (ERS), the Farm Service Agency (FSA) and others.

Corn, cotton, soybeans and wheat are Tennessee’s top crops, and prices for each fell in 2024. Over the last five years prices for each of the commodities have fallen, with cotton prices having fallen the least over five years (10.8% on average), while corn, soybeans and wheat have all fallen by at least 20% during the period 2019-2024.

Tennessee also had below average yields in 2024, which when combined with price declines and changes in harvested acreage, will result in a dramatic decline in gross cash receipts. Based on current estimates of average prices, yields, and acreage harvested, gross cash receipts for Tennessee corn, cotton, soybeans and wheat will decline by $582.3 million compared to 2023, a drop from $2.2 billion to $1.6 billion. For the 2024-2025 marketing year, Tennessee farm-gate prices are projected to be similar: $4.00-$5.20 per bushel for corn; $0.67-$0.78 per pound for cotton; $10.00-$11.50 per bushel for soybeans; and $5.30-$6.50 per bushel for wheat.

The value of animals and animal products increased slightly in 2024, accounting for approximately 40% ($2.10 billion) of Tennessee’s agricultural receipts. At the beginning of 2024, Tennessee ranked sixteenth nationally in terms of the total cattle and calves inventory (1.60 million head including 835,000 beef cows and 25,000 dairy cows), which is the same ranking as a year ago. Tennessee ranked twelfth in total beef cow numbers. Kentucky and Florida are the only states east of the Mississippi River with larger beef cow inventories. Tennessee is ranked fourth nationally in meat goat numbers at 72,000 head. In addition to cattle, with cash receipts valued at $876.7 million in 2024, the state has a significant broiler production industry ($794.4 million). Hogs (2.6% of cash receipts), dairy products and milk (1.9%) and chicken eggs (1.7%) round out the top valuations.

A big question mark for the agricultural sector in 2025 will be U.S. trade policies. In FY 2024, Tennessee’s agricultural and related exports were $2.7 billion, down $313.7 million or 10.4% when compared to the previous fiscal year ($3.0 billion). While exports to China and Germany, two of our top agricultural trading partners, increased—primarily because of China’s interest in purchasing cotton— exports of intermediate products such as soybean meal and oil and other feeds fell by 10.5%, due in large part to a 60% decline in distilled spirits exports to the Netherlands. In better news, related-product exports, which are mostly forest products, were up $15.4 million to a total of $174.8 million (+9.7%).

The following faculty in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics contributed to the agricultural analyses included in the report: Andrew Muhammad, Andrew P. Griffith, Charley Martinez, R. Jamey Menard, Aaron Smith, Sreedhar Upendram and T. Edward Yu.

The University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture is comprised of the Herbert College of Agriculture, UT College of Veterinary Medicine, UT AgResearch, and UT Extension. Through its land-grant mission of teaching, research and outreach, the Institute touches lives and provides Real. Life. Solutions. to Tennesseans and beyond. utia.tennessee.edu.

–UTIA

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Angus Foundation Heifer Package

Each year the Angus Foundation Heifer Package leads off the National Angus Bull Sale. The 2025 heifer package is donated by Pollard Farms of Waukomis, Oklahoma.

The heifer, POLLARD Rita 4012 (AAA* 20875621), is a daughter of EXAR Cover the Bases 0819B and out of a productive, young two-year-old that is “on her way to the donor pen,” said Dr. Barry Pollard of Pollard Farms. She stems from the PF W34 Rita 4139, a long-time donor in the Pollard Farms program.

Rita is an elite donor prospect. She exemplifies the phenotypic and numerical balance that Dr. Pollard and his crew strive to produce, ranking in the top 1% for $C, Marb, $G, $AxH and $AxJ; top 2% for $B and $W; top 5% for RADG; top 10% for WW, YW, and HP; top 15% for CED, BW, PAP, and $M; top 20% for RE; and top 25% for CW and $F.

The heifer package also includes an Advanced Reproductive Technology Package from Trans Ova Genetics; trucking to the buyer donated by Lathrop Livestock Transportation; and 30 days of mortality insurance donated by Jeanne Conover, Livestock Insurance Agent with Conover Auction Service.

The sale starts at 2 p.m. on Friday, January 10, 2025, at Cattlemen’s Congress in Oklahoma City.

To learn more about the Angus Foundation Heifer Package visit bit.ly/2025HeiferPackage.

Fund the Future Offerings

A special feature to the January events is the Angus Foundation “Fund the Future” donation lot that will sell. The Bases Loaded Sale, held January 7 at Heritage Place in Oklahoma City, will feature a heifer pregnancy donated by Riverbend Ranch with complimentary trucking included by Lathrop Livestock Transportation.

This headlining female of the Riverbed and Vintage Angus programs, sells as Lot A with 100% of the proceeds benefiting the Foundation’s mission. The Fund the Future program allows breeders to donate proceeds from a designated sale lot to the Angus Fund, which provides unrestricted dollars to support the breed.

This Fund the Future donation lot features a heifer pregnancy from the $194,000 valued second-generation Riverbed Ranch donor, Miss Belle 9209 and sired by the American Angus Association’s Sire of the Year, Connealy Craftsman. The anticipated due date is February 24, 2025.

Angus Herdsman Social

The Foundation and Association will again host a celebration for the Angus family at the 2025 Cattlemen’s Congress. The Angus Herdsman Social serves as an evening of fellowship in Oklahoma City, Friday, January 10.

The doors of the Cattlemen’s Bar in Barn 3 will open at 3:45 p.m. following the National Angus Bull Sale. The social will feature the announcement of the 2025 Angus Herdsman of the Year, food, refreshments and a group of auction and raffle items to benefit the Foundation’s mission.

Auction highlights include a men’s and/or women’s custom-made cowboy hat from Greeley Hat Works, a set of whiskey barrel chairs and a custom cowhide bag from Holy Cow Couture. A 2025 National Finals Rodeo ticket package, among other exciting items and experiences, is available for bidding.

Those interested in any of the January events and offerings supporting the Angus Foundation are encouraged to contact Jaclyn Boester, Angus Foundation executive director, at JBoester@Angus.org, or their regional manager. To learn more about the Angus Foundation and its mission, visit angus.org/foundation.

–Molly Biggs, Communications Specialist
American Angus Association

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The announcement follows the news of Jeff Aiken’s retirement after three years serving as TDA Deputy Commissioner.

“Andy’s wealth of experience and forward-thinking approach will ensure that our programs will continue to align with the needs of farmers and foresters in Tennessee,” Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, D.V.M. said. “He has demonstrated leadership and strengthened relationships with rural communities as well as local, state, and federal stakeholders.”

As Deputy Commissioner, Holt will oversee day-to-day operations for TDA, support programs and services, and collaborate on policy development.

Holt joined TDA four years ago as Director of Business Development and was promoted to Assistant Commissioner within two years. Before his appointment to TDA, he was a member of the Tennessee General Assembly for 10 years representing House District 76, which included all of Weakley and portions of Carroll & Obion Counties. During his service in the House of Representatives, he served as the Chairman of the Budget Subcommittee, Vice-Chairman of the House Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee and served as the Chairman of the Ag Day on the Hill Committee for the duration of his tenure.

Holt holds a Bachelor of Science Degree in Agricultural Economics Business with a minor in Animal Science (2004) from the University of Tennessee at Knoxville, and a Master of Business Administration (2007) from the University of Tennessee at Martin.

Holt, his wife and their seven children, live on their family farm outside of Dresden. The Holt’s farming operation consists of a diversified livestock and agritourism operation.

Aiken plans to return to his East Tennessee family farm where he and his family run a beef cattle operation and produce corn, tobacco, and straw. His leadership at TDA was key to administering record investments and transforming communities in rural Tennessee.

“Jeff’s guidance and influence the past three years was instrumental in keeping agriculture the number one industry in Tennessee,” Hatcher added. “He provided thoughtful counsel during challenging circumstances and was always first to give credit to others for work well done. His passion for agriculture and forestry is clear in everything he does. His leadership and knowledge led to TDA’s significant strides in advancing agriculture, improving practices, and supporting farming families.”

–Tennessee Department of Agriculture

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Live fed cattle prices remain strong with cash trades better than $190 but prices for the year look range-bound to me between $180 and just better than $190. The boxed beef cutout value is holding better than $300 with a mix of performance at the primal level. Rib prices have been seasonally outstanding, and tenderloins have also been strong. Loins are showing some seasonal weakness as is ground beef. End meats are showing solid price levels but not much in terms of improvements. Once the market retreats from the strong rib purchases, and the Choice-Select spread seasonally softens, much will be determined by Chucks and Rounds. Also, this will be the period the market moves into the time of year when packer margins are the weakest. My point? The strong finish to the year in calf prices has little to do with what is going on downstream.

It is also not reacting to grain market news. Information from recent Crop Production and WASDE reports suggest some firming of feed grain prices. After a series of reports through the summer where production steadily increased, the November reports communicate some softening of yields, overall production, and a modest tightening of stocks-to-use. However, forage prices remain much below prior years and availability is substantially better.

Carcass weights remain truly impressive and have backed up very little from the four weeks at 960-pound average steer weights – heifers are following suit. It will be interesting, and important, to see the magnitude of any seasonal decline in weights. How much of the 40-pound increase based on the same week of the year prior persists? With lower corn prices and longer feeding periods then heavy weights will persist. But how heavy and what are the possible further increases?

These weight increases in all likelihood hang over the market as well as do the front-loaded cattle on feed inventories. The calculated cattle on feed over 150 days has been larger than any of the proceeding years – other than 2020 – but this inventory has been moving lower through the summer and fall. The exception is November’s number. The inventory of these long-fed animals has been large relative to what is seen in the 120 days on feed inventory. Inventories on feed over 120 days are this month tighter than 2023. Whereas the 150-day number is even compared with last year. Again, big numbers and weights now – and back through the summer and fall – but the prospect is for change come the first quarter. The pipeline is full for the near term with less so into next year. But then there are first-quarter packer margins to navigate.

The Markets

What does the technical picture say? Live cattle and feeder cattle futures have again posted strong rallies in September, October, and November. However, the market currently sits at resistance formed in the spring, and the spring strength was less than the excitement from this time last year. Approaching resistance is a sell signal. Cow-calf producers need to be getting ready and looking hard at LRP into next year. And I have talked to several that received payment this year. I see next year’s GFX contract looking a lot like this year’s. Strong sell-offs, strong up moves, and a lot of underlying volatility. And that is until herd building begins in earnest. As always, watch your charts. And add that Cattle on Feed report to the list. Placements through the spring will be an important signal.

— Stephen R. Koontz, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University

The post In the Cattle Markets: Strong Calf Prices Finish the Year appeared first on Morning Ag Clips.

The Pinnacle Partnership Award is the highest recognition a county Farm Bureau may receive. It is evidenced by the cooperation between volunteer leaders, agents and staff. Each county Farm Bureau is to be commended for their hard work and well-earned success over the past year.

The counties listed below received a pinnacle award this year, each listed with the name of the county president:

• Cannon County – Mark Barker
• Coffee County – AJ Teal
• Henry County – John Townsend
• Lawrence County – Ernie Jones
• Lincoln County – Josh Ogle
• Maury County – Neil Delk
• Obion County – Mike Holman
• Overton County – Michael Garrett
• Putnam County – Sam Tays
• Rutherford County – Mike Vaught
• Smith County – George Clay
• Sullivan County – Chris Widner
• Sumner County – Chuck Groves
• Unicoi County – Renea Jones
• Washington County – David Saylor
• Weakley County – Jay Yeargin
• Wilson County – Pal Neal

–Tennessee Farm Bureau

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The New World screwworm (NWS) is a fly that has a particularly gory way of harming our cattle. Female NWS flies lay their eggs in open wounds or body orifices and when the larvae hatch, they burrow deep into the skin like a screw driving into wood. These maggots feed on cattle’s tissue, causing larger wounds as they go.

NWS flies and their burrowing larvae cause extensive damage to cattle and infestations can spread rapidly. In 1966, we eradicated screwworms in the United States through sterile insect technique. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) bred sterile male NWS flies that mated with wild female screwworms and failed to produce offspring. Eventually, these flies died out in the U.S. and now they only exist in a handful of South American countries.

Unfortunately, these flesh eating flies are now on the march north.

Since 2022, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed the presence of New World screwworms in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. Just last month, screwworms were discovered in southern Mexico, which raised red flags for us at the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA).

Once in Mexico, it is easy for screwworms to travel north and appear on our southern border. These flies can hitch a ride on people, livestock, or wild animals, not to mention the thousands of vehicles and cargo containers traveling through Mexico to the United States.

We know how devastating it would be if New World screwworm returned to the United States, which is why NCBA is raising the alarm now. First, we are communicating with Mexico’s cattle industry leaders so they can begin the process of screening for these flies and push for eradication efforts in their country. We are also supporting USDA-APHIS to bolster the use of sterile flies. Recently, we have been concerned that our existing sterile flies might not be getting the job done, and NCBA is pushing for more flies and better flies that will help us beat back these pests.

Although we haven’t confirmed any New World screwworms in the United States, we need you to be on high alert. New World screwworms have orange eyes, a metallic blue or green body, and three dark stripes across their backs. If you see any suspicious flies, please alert your local veterinarian, extension agent, or contact USDA-APHIS Veterinary Services.

Please also pay close attention to your cattle and watch for any open wounds or sores. If cattle exhibit irritated behavior, head shaking, you notice the smell of decaying flesh, or spot maggots in a wound, seek treatment from a veterinarian immediately. Proper wound treatment and prevention is the best way to protect your farm or ranch from a screwworm infestation. NCBA is also sharing the latest updates through our website. I encourage you to visit www.ncba.org/NWS for all the latest information on how to protect your operation.

NCBA is always on the clock to protect the U.S. cattle industry from threats like New World screwworm. Through your vigilance and NCBA’s advocacy, we can protect the United States cattle herd.

Kim Brackett is an Idaho rancher and serves as Policy Division Chair of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA). Support our efforts to protect the cattle industry by becoming a member of NCBA. Join today at www.ncba.org or by calling 1-866-BEEF-USA (1-866-233-3872).

— Kim Brackett, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association Policy Division Chair

The post Op-Ed: Protecting the Herd from New World Screwworm appeared first on Morning Ag Clips.

After submitting a thorough application and going through an extensive interview process, Jernigan was chosen for her involvement and leadership in her community and Farm Bureau. She has held many leadership roles both in the county and on the state level, and has excelled in spreading the message of agriculture.

“The Outstanding Young Woman award is a way to recognize a woman in our organization who does a superior job in promoting and supporting agriculture and Farm Bureau. Megan is to be commended for her hard work and dedication, and we are proud to honor her with this award,” said Tennessee Farm Bureau President Eric Mayberry.

Eagleville Implement Company is the sponsor of this event, awarding a 6-foot Bush Hog cutter valued at $3,500 to Megan.

Tennessee Farm Bureau is the largest Farm Bureau in the nation with a membership of more than 690,000. The organization has served as the voice of agriculture since 1921, and with the same mission a century later – to develop, foster, promote and protect programs for the general welfare, including economic, social, educational and political well-being of farm people of the great state of Tennessee.

–Tennessee Farm Bureau

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